European Commission Legal Path to End Russian Energy Imports by 2027

Subscribe to our free newsletter today to keep up to date with the latest energy, oil and gas news.

The European Commission has introduced a draft law to end all imports of Russian natural gas, liquefied natural gas, and crude oil by December 31, 2027. This legal initiative is a cornerstone of the EU’s REPowerEU strategy, which aims to eliminate the bloc’s dependency on Russian fossil fuels while strengthening energy security and geopolitical autonomy. Rather than rely on unanimous sanctions, the Commission is using internal market legislation, allowing for a qualified majority vote to bypass potential vetoes from countries such as Hungary and Slovakia.

This legislation reflects a culmination of multiple energy diversification policies implemented since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The Commission argues that the EU now possesses sufficient infrastructure, interconnectivity, and storage capacity to fully support the transition.

No new deals, contract expiries, full ban

The proposed regulation introduces a phased schedule to sever ties with Russian fossil fuel suppliers. The first stage will prohibit new contracts for Russian pipeline gas or LNG starting January 1, 2026. This initial cutoff serves to stop any further entrenchment of Russian energy within EU systems.

Next, all short-term contracts (defined as one year or less) signed before June 17, 2025, must conclude by June 17, 2026. The final stage mandates the termination of all long-term gas and LNG contracts as well as existing pipeline agreements with landlocked countries no later than December 31, 2027. Member states still importing Russian oil, including Hungary and Slovakia, must develop and submit national phase-out plans by 2026. The law explicitly includes both crude oil and oil products in the total energy ban.

Companies get legal protection to exit Russian contracts early

To prevent legal retaliation from Russian suppliers, the proposal introduces specific provisions allowing companies to invoke force majeure to exit existing contracts without facing financial penalties. This legal shield is designed to eliminate the risk of breach-of-contract litigation that has historically deterred firms from terminating Russian energy agreements.

In parallel, the legislation mandates importers to disclose full contract details, including volumes and origin, to EU customs authorities and regulators. This transparency requirement aims to ensure compliance and prevent under-the-radar deals that could undermine the law’s effectiveness.

Infrastructure and strategy underpinning Europe’s pivot

A critical element supporting the Commission’s push is the significant transformation of EU energy infrastructure. Since 2022, the EU has invested in expanding LNG terminals, building new interconnector pipelines, and promoting collective gas purchasing through the REPowerEU strategy.

By mid-2024, Russian pipeline gas accounted for only 13 percent of EU imports, down from 45 percent in 2021. Russian oil imports similarly declined from 27 percent in early 2022 to just 3 percent. Natural gas demand has dropped by approximately 17 percent since 2021, and storage capacity reached over 90 percent ahead of the 2023 and 2024 winter seasons. The EU has also secured long-term LNG agreements with the United States, potentially adding 45 million metric tons of US gas annually into the European market, further diversifying supply sources.

Political challenges remain, as some states resist the move

Despite broad support from member states like France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Spain, political opposition remains. Hungary and Slovakia, both heavily reliant on Russian energy, have criticized the plan and are expected to resist compliance. Austria has proposed that the law include flexibility to resume Russian imports post-conflict, a suggestion at odds with the Commission’s intent for a definitive break.

To move forward, the Commission will leverage trade and internal market rules to adopt the regulation through qualified majority voting. This strategy sidesteps the need for unanimity and ensures that a small group of dissenting countries cannot block the law.

Strategic stakes and the future of EU energy independence

Beyond energy policy, the proposal underscores the EU’s broader ambition to fortify its strategic autonomy. Severing energy ties with Russia removes a key revenue stream that has historically funded military aggression, particularly in Ukraine. The transition also positions Europe as a global leader in clean energy and diversified sourcing, with implications for long-term price stability and supply security.

The law is part of a larger shift toward aligning energy, trade, and geopolitical interests within a unified framework. If adopted, the regulation could redefine Europe’s energy landscape and cement a permanent departure from Russian fossil fuel dependence.

Sources:

• Rigzone
• Reuters