Forecast solution bringing benefits
The Estonian transmission network operator Elering has been using ProCom BoFiT for the past five years to forecast the electrical network load across Estonia and its regions. At the end of 2016, ProCom got the order to extend the BoFiT system to predict gas consumption in the country and up to 36 gas distribution stations as well as the forecast of the electrical transmission network losses in Estonia. These forecasts have run productively since the end of February 2017.
From better gas forecasting Elering is expecting an increased security of supply and reliability; improved utilisation of transport and distribution capacities as well as an more exact planning base for its targeted expansion; as well as more efficient gas purchasing over a longer period.
With a more accurate network losses forecast, Elering is able to purchase the exact amount at the best price and to avoid control energy costs. BoFiT generates day-ahead and intraday forecasts. The grid loss forecasts use some of the following predictions as influence factors, some of which also BoFiT generated:
- Estonian power generation in the various large-scale power plants and the wind power generation as well as the load. From those BoFiT derives the net position of Estonia
- Net position of Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus and Kaliningrad
- Cross-border energy flows with Russia