Norway warns oil and gas output could fall without new investment
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Norway is producing oil and gas at high levels, but its energy regulator is warning that output will begin to fall later this decade unless companies approve new projects and maintain exploration spending.
The warning comes as Norway plays a larger role in European energy supply. Norwegian gas accounted for 31% of total EU natural gas imports in 2025, up from 24% in 2021. More than half of EU pipeline gas imports came from Norway during the year.
For buyers across Europe, the concern is not an immediate lack of supply. Norway’s current production remains strong. The issue is whether enough new production can be brought online as older fields decline.
That makes investment decisions taken over the next few years important well beyond the Norwegian Continental Shelf.
Norway’s production remains strong, but the outlook is changing
Norway entered 2026 from a position of strength.
Oil production reached 106 million standard cubic meters in 2025, the highest level since 2009. Gas sales totaled about 120 billion standard cubic meters, slightly below the record set in 2024. Norway’s energy regulator expects gas production to remain near current levels for another three to four years.
Production data from 2026 has also been stronger than expected in several months. Oil production in May was about 7% above forecast, while total petroleum production during the first five months of the year was higher than during the same period in 2025.
Yet current output gives only part of the picture.
Total production is expected to begin falling toward the end of the 2020s. Without enough new field developments, the natural decline of producing fields will become harder to offset.
For energy companies, suppliers and European buyers, this shifts attention from current production volumes to the next group of projects.
Norway has a large offshore resource base, but resources do not become production automatically. Discoveries need to be assessed, financed, approved, developed and connected to infrastructure. Each stage takes time.
A lack of development today can therefore lead to lower production several years later.
Mature fields are making new investment more important
The investment outlook helps explain why Norway is raising the issue now.
Investment on the Norwegian Continental Shelf is expected to reach NOK 256 billion in 2026. That would represent a 6.5% decline from 2025. Spending is then expected to fall gradually toward 2030 as major developments are completed and fewer projects of similar size take their place.
There are still 17 field developments with approved plans underway. These projects will help slow production declines during the next decade.
However, many future developments are expected to involve smaller discoveries. Some can be linked to existing offshore infrastructure instead of being developed as large standalone fields. This can reduce the need for new infrastructure and allow operators to make greater use of platforms, pipelines and processing facilities already in place.
This approach could become more common as the Norwegian Continental Shelf matures.
It also raises the value of existing infrastructure. A smaller discovery that would be difficult to develop on its own may be economic if it can be connected to a nearby field.
Timing will matter. Offshore facilities have limited operating lives, and smaller discoveries can become harder to develop if nearby infrastructure closes before they are ready.
Norway therefore faces a connected set of decisions on exploration, development and the operating life of existing assets. Delays in one area can weaken the economics of another.
Lower Norwegian output would matter across Europe
Norway’s production outlook has become more important since Europe reduced its dependence on Russian pipeline gas.
Norway supplied 31% of total EU natural gas imports in 2025 and 54% of EU pipeline gas imports. In the second quarter of 2025, it was also the EU’s largest overall gas supplier, accounting for 30% of imports.
A long-term decline in Norwegian gas production would therefore have consequences outside the country.
Europe could respond through a mix of lower gas demand, domestic production, renewable energy, storage and imports from other suppliers. Liquefied natural gas would also remain an important source.
Greater dependence on LNG, however, can expose European buyers more directly to global competition. Cargoes can move between regions according to prices, demand and shipping conditions. Pipeline supply from Norway gives Europe another source through established infrastructure.
For industrial companies, utilities and other large energy users, the question is not only how much gas Norway produces. It is how Europe’s supply mix changes if Norwegian volumes begin to fall.
Exploration can slow the decline, but may not stop it
Norway still has several ways to limit the pace of production losses.
Exploration can add new resources, while investment in producing fields can improve recovery and extend operating lives. Smaller discoveries near existing infrastructure may also offer a faster route to new production than large standalone projects.
Recent exploration activity has provided some support. Even so, new field development decisions will be needed if Norway is to slow the expected decline later this decade.
The key question is whether projects can move forward quickly enough.
Norway is unlikely to lose its role as a major European oil and gas supplier in the near term. Production remains high, gas output is expected to stay near current levels for several years and substantial investment is still underway.
The longer-term position is less certain.
As mature fields decline, production will depend more heavily on new discoveries, project approvals and investment decisions made today. For Europe, Norway’s offshore investment cycle has become an important part of the region’s future energy supply.
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