RefuelEU is a step forward, not a policy mistake says Andrew Symes
There has been some skepticism in recent months about RefuelEU, the regulation that mandates a gradual uptake of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Criticism from those who do not think climate is a serious problem is expected, as SAF is more expensive than fossil jet fuel, but interestingly there has been some criticism from pro climate action electrification-focused activists as well.
Their critique derives from the rational mindset that we should prioritize the sectors with the highest emission savings per $ spent first, as shorter term emissions
savings are more impactful than those in the future due to the long-lived nature of CO2. Displacing coal electricity generation with renewables comes top of the list, followed by the electrification of road transport and then home heating. Sectors such as SAF, which have significantly higher costs of abatement, are further down the list.
In response, countries have prioritized renewable power, and they are now starting to seriously tackle the roll out of EVs and heat pumps. But some are now pushing this logical argument to the extreme. They argue that any money and time spent now on reducing emissions in sectors like SAF such as RefuelEU is a waste.
This demand for a strict, rigid sequence is wrong for three reasons.
1 The next sector won’t be ready when we do need it
Without any support for SAF now, the costs will not come down, and it will not be ready when we do need it. SAF needs the continuous input of feedstock, so the cost down potential may not be as dramatic as solar and wind, but innovation can still make a huge difference. Aside from used cooking oil SAF via HEFA which is strictly limited due to land use, the other SAF routes from gasified carbon waste, biogas, methanol, ethanol and CO2, are all fairly new and all need initial support for costs to come down. We are used to starting with crude oil and making a mix of gasoline, jet, diesel and fuel. Starting with waste carbon feedstocks and trying to make only C8-C16 jet fuel hydrocarbons with branching and aromatics for SAF is a new challenge.
2 Aviation is more discretionary. People accept something should be done
What different sectors can achieve depends on many factors, not just the cost of the emissions saved. SAF has a higher cost per ton of avoided emissions than home heating, but it is also a far more discretionary use of fossil fuels. Other methods of communication and travel are often available meaning there is more tolerance for price increases. Spending on aviation correlates much more closely with wealth than home heating. Taxing aviation and then putting the money towards things other than SAF is already done and leaves aviation without a solution.
3 Sectors are not silos
3This line of thinking ignores the positive links between sectors. SAF production pathways with low carbon intensities rely on green electricity. Rather than focusing solely on how every megawatt of green electricity used for SAF is one less for EVs or heat pumps, the reality is more nuanced. Increasing demand for green electricity to produce SAF and e-SAF can drive greater investment in renewables, ultimately benefiting all sectors that depend on it by reducing costs. SAF can be part of the grand electrification megatrend. SAF can also strengthen local agriculture and forestry sectors by creating a valuable market for waste carbon.
Aviation needs a solution
Aviation emissions are set to grow rapidly, even with some demand destruction. In the UK, they are already higher than those from the electricity supply sector. There is no question that decarbonizing aviation is more expensive per ton than other options. But policies like RefuelEU are still important. It is not about prioritizing aviation over other sectors. It is about ensuring the sector is not left behind in the transition. Aviation needs a solution, and RefuelEU is a critical step towards delivering one.
Andrew Symes
Andrew Symes is the Co-Founder and CEO of OXCCU, a spinout from Oxford University, specializing in converting waste carbon into fuels, chemicals, and plastics via novel catalysis. OXCCU’s mission is to develop the world’s lowest cost, lowest emission pathways to make SAF, enabling people to continue to fly and use hydrocarbon products but with a reduced climate impact. Andrew is at the forefront of this mission.