Why nations are pumping more oil and gas despite green pledges
Subscribe to our free newsletter today to keep up to date with the latest energy, oil and gas news.
Global commitments to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius remain in conflict with national fossil fuel strategies. The Production Gap Report 2025 finds governments plan to produce about 120 percent more fossil fuels by 2030 than is consistent with that goal. For a 2-degree pathway, the overshoot is 77 percent. By the end of the decade, coal production would exceed climate-safe levels by more than 500 percent, while oil and gas output would be 31 percent and 92 percent higher respectively.
The overshoot is growing. Earlier reports suggested a contraction in supply, but new assessments show governments now expect to expand production at a faster pace. This reversal is at odds with pledges made in Paris and reaffirmed at subsequent climate summits.
Rising energy demand complicates the clean transition
Another factor weighing on the energy balance is demand. Worldwide energy consumption rose 2.2 percent in 2024, compared with the average 1.3 percent growth from 2013 to 2023. Electricity use climbed, driven by data centers, artificial intelligence, transport electrification, and industrial activity.
Non-fossil sources such as renewables, nuclear, and bioenergy grew by more than 5 percent last year, yet fossil fuels still absorbed a large share of new demand. The clean energy transition is advancing, but it is racing against a moving target. Every year of higher baseline consumption makes it harder for renewables to replace coal, oil, and gas on a net basis.
Political and corporate incentives for fossil expansion
Even as scientific warnings intensify, political and market forces are reinforcing fossil reliance. Governments are increasing production to shore up energy security, protect jobs, and secure export revenues. In the United States, oil and gas rig counts reached their highest level since mid-2024. In the United Kingdom, petroleum output rose by 13 percent in late 2024 compared with the prior year.
Energy companies are also signaling that fossil fuels remain central to their portfolios. BP revised its long-term outlook to project higher oil and gas demand through 2050. The company simultaneously scaled back its renewables strategy, shifting billions of dollars toward exploration and production. For shareholders, this move is justified by short-term returns. For climate targets, it represents a major setback.
Expanded fossil reliance locks in infrastructure that risks becoming stranded in a low-carbon world. It also diverts capital from renewables and efficiency investments that could deliver growth and resilience.
Health impacts add urgency. Recent data show that 1.6 billion people are exposed to dangerous air pollution levels tied to fossil fuel burning. These burdens fall most heavily on vulnerable populations in cities and industrial regions.
There are some gains. Countries such as the United Kingdom have completed coal phase-outs in electricity generation, and non-fossil investment is accelerating in parts of Asia and Europe. Yet these advances are overshadowed by the scale of fossil overshoot globally.
Eliminating fossil subsidies remains one of the most powerful levers to level the field for renewables. Accelerating clean infrastructure investment, from grid modernization to storage, is essential to absorb rising demand. Planning for a just transition that supports workers and communities tied to fossil industries is equally critical.
International cooperation will also determine whether climate targets can survive. Without stronger coordination, production increases in one country risk undermining reductions elsewhere. Carbon border adjustments, stricter emissions reporting, and greater climate finance all play a role.
Sources: